Quantitative Analysis
For every set of parameters below — premium, payout, policy volume, vault capital — we draw 10,000 random delay rates and compute the underwriter's yield each time. The histogram is the distribution of outcomes; the four cards above are its summary stats.
What this does
Each trial picks a delay probability p uniformly between the min/max sliders, then applies the parametric formula yield = M·(π − λ·p) / C. 10,000 trials give us a mean, a 5th/95th percentile, and a profit probability for the vault.
Why “poor man's”
A real Monte Carlo would calibrate p to historical BTS data per route, draw individual flight outcomes (Bernoulli, not an average), and model correlated outages when storms hit a hub. Ours uses a flat uniform distribution — good enough to sanity-check that the economics work, not good enough to set premiums. That's why on-chain pricing comes from the XGBoost + Grok agent, not from this page.
Average Yield
+95.2%
Mean across all trials
Worst Case (5th %ile)
+9.2%
5% of outcomes are worse
Best Case (95th %ile)
+180.2%
5% of outcomes are better
Profit Probability
100.0%
Chance of positive return
Policy Terms
Scale
Delay Probability Range
Above this rate, underwriters lose money
Distribution of Simulated Yields (10,000 trials)
Protocol Earnings Explorer
From Monte Carlo simulation above
Premium Fee Income
$10,000
5% of $200,000
Vault Yield Income
$47,600
95.2% on $50,000
Total Protocol Earnings
$57,600
Fee + Vault yield
Earnings Split
17% / 83%
Fee vs Vault